News April 12, 2018

"No trade war – but no armistice either"

There is no trade war for now – but no prospect of an ceasefire either, Christian Nolting, Chief Investment Officer for Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, says in a new video putting the recent tensions between the US and China in the context of global trade evolution.

Click the image below for the video.

Christian Nolting

Trade continues to fulfil a very basic human need, Nolting says. Contrary to some claims, there is little evidence that the world has passed “peak-globalisation”: merchandise trade volume growth was nearly 5 percent in 2017. As a result, US and Chinese plans to impose tariffs could cause significant disruption to trade flows and in the markets.

“Our base case scenario is that there is no trade war – but there will be no full trade armistice either,” says Nolting. ”Finding a way out the current impasse could be difficult and time consuming. As a result, volatility could stay at current levels for quite some time”.

For further information about the economic theory behind global trade, please see also our CIO Insights Reflections report published previously - Buy Global Trade.

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