Five themes the Deutsche Bank Research Institute is tracking through the rest of 2026
What happens in one region no longer stays there. Renewed conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine have underscored how events in one part of the world can quickly reverberate across economies, markets and industries.
For investors, corporates and policymakers alike, questions around energy security, supply chains, inflation and regional stability are once again converging with other major structural themes. Those include artificial intelligence, the resilience of the US economy and ultimately the future direction of global markets.
First-half review
Across the first half, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute analysed the driving forces of a world in transition through a series of flagship publications, including:
As the second half of 2026 unfolds, many of the year's defining questions remain unresolved across macroeconomics, geopolitics, technology and the corporate landscape. These are exactly the types of cross-cutting themes the Deutsche Bank Research Institute was set up to explore.
“ Executives, policymakers and investors are dealing with big questions from geopolitical conflict and economic resilience to the race to unlock the value in AI. The Deutsche Bank Research Institute is focused on analysing how these developments influence one another, helping to cut across traditional silos and shed light on the trends shaping the years ahead.” Jim Reid, Head of the Deutsche Bank Research Institute and Global Head of Macro & Thematic Research
The Deutsche Bank Research Institute will continue to expand its offering in the coming months, connecting ideas from different markets, sectors and disciplines and bringing audiences fresh perspectives and more multimedia content. You can also subscribe to be the first to get reports on geopolitics, macroeconomics, technology and the corporate landscape straight to your inbox.
“ The most important trends rarely fit neatly into a single category. Our focus is on helping audiences understand how technology, geopolitics, markets and society interact – and what those connections mean for decision-makers.” Pam Finelli, Associate Director of the Deutsche Bank Research Institute and Chief Operating Officer, Global Research
Top five themes to watch in the second half of 2026
1. Will an increasingly interconnected world create new risks and opportunities?
As developments in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine war, US-China relations, technology and energy markets become ever more intertwined, investors will be watching how one shock can ripple across economies, markets and societies. Our geopolitical strategists share their mid-year update in this Podzept episode: The World at Mid-Year: The 2026 Geopolitical Playbook.
2. Is the AI boom starting to deliver economic results?
Attention is shifting from AI investment announcements towards productivity gains, adoption and business outcomes. See Charts to make you go WOW!!! 2026 for more on this.
3. Where do interest rates go next?
Energy prices, inflation and central bank policy remain critical variables for corporates and investors alike – a recent example of our analysis is this report on food price dynamics: Food for thought: Sowing the seeds of food inflation.
4. Can markets remain resilient?
Despite multiple shocks, credit markets and earnings have remained relatively robust, raising questions about sustainability through the remainder of the year – a theme discussed in this Podzept podcast from our annual European Conference: Conference Insights: Thoughts from our dbAccess European Champions Conference.
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What happens in one region no longer stays there. Renewed conflict in the Middle East and the ongoing war in Ukraine have underscored how events in one part of the world can quickly reverberate across economies, markets and industries.
For investors, corporates and policymakers alike, questions around energy security, supply chains, inflation and regional stability are once again converging with other major structural themes. Those include artificial intelligence, the resilience of the US economy and ultimately the future direction of global markets.
First-half review
Across the first half, the Deutsche Bank Research Institute analysed the driving forces of a world in transition through a series of flagship publications, including:
2026 Geopolitical Outlook – Geopolitical Realignment: Investing Beyond Volatility
US at 250 – Why has the US been so successful?
The return of history: gold, the dollar, and the monetary future
AI, Iran and the Gulf 101
Second-half outlook
As the second half of 2026 unfolds, many of the year's defining questions remain unresolved across macroeconomics, geopolitics, technology and the corporate landscape. These are exactly the types of cross-cutting themes the Deutsche Bank Research Institute was set up to explore.
The Deutsche Bank Research Institute will continue to expand its offering in the coming months, connecting ideas from different markets, sectors and disciplines and bringing audiences fresh perspectives and more multimedia content. You can also subscribe to be the first to get reports on geopolitics, macroeconomics, technology and the corporate landscape straight to your inbox.
Top five themes to watch in the second half of 2026
1. Will an increasingly interconnected world create new risks and opportunities?
2. Is the AI boom starting to deliver economic results?
Attention is shifting from AI investment announcements towards productivity gains, adoption and business outcomes. See Charts to make you go WOW!!! 2026 for more on this.
3. Where do interest rates go next?
Energy prices, inflation and central bank policy remain critical variables for corporates and investors alike – a recent example of our analysis is this report on food price dynamics: Food for thought: Sowing the seeds of food inflation.
4. Can markets remain resilient?
Despite multiple shocks, credit markets and earnings have remained relatively robust, raising questions about sustainability through the remainder of the year – a theme discussed in this Podzept podcast from our annual European Conference: Conference Insights: Thoughts from our dbAccess European Champions Conference.
5. What happens after US exceptionalism?
The themes explored in our US at 250 report and related dbInSights video US at 250 – Why has the US been so successful and can it continue? continue to resonate as investors assess the future drivers of American economic leadership in an increasingly competitive world – listen to our recent Rate Check podcast for a discussion on this: All things US: midterms, Fed and the dollar.
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