Themen:
Media Release
January 10, 2019
Beyond the peaks: 2019 outlook
Wealth Management CIO Insights Annual Outlook
"Recent market volatility suggests increased market uncertainty," said Christian Nolting, Chief Investment Officer for Deutsche Bank Wealth Management, identifying six themes for the new year. "Global growth is likely to slow this year, but positive returns are still expected across a range of asset classes."
The themes for 2019 are based around the macroeconomic outlook, market conditions and the major asset classes:
Global growth is slowing and becoming less synchronised. As the US upswing matures, Europe will suffer from political uncertainty and risks remain around China. But, despite monetary policy tightening, growth will not collapse.
Markets are struggling with the transition to a more normal policy environment. Other underlying volatility triggers will remain – including geopolitics, and softer GDP and earnings growth. Lower returns are likely for a given level of risk.
After a decade, investors have got used to low yields on bond investments. Now, in the U.S. at least, this is changing, with the short end of the yield curve now attractive. Other fixed income opportunities exist, but so do risks – be selective.
Looking through recent volatility, global equities still have a lot going for them. Earnings growth could however fall short of expectations as global markets adjust to reality – as a result, the CIO expects lower but still positive 12-month equity returns.
The CIO expects continued US dollar strength in early 2019, but think that it will be gently eroded during the course of the year. After a sharp decline in oil prices at the end of last year, supply constraints should support some recovery in 2019.
The report “Beyond the peaks – Investment themes for the world ahead” has further sections on multi asset and alternatives investment. It also includes our new macroeconomic and financial market numeric forecasts for 2019.
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