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May 27, 2019
Europe has voted!
Five takeaways from Kevin Körner, Deutsche Bank Research
The first provisional results for the European Parliament elections came in Sunday night. First a positive surprise: with a provisional estimate of 51% - the strongest result in 25 years - electoral turnout broke the downward trend of the last decades towards a record low of less than 43% in 2014. This could be interpreted as an indicator that Europe managed to mobilise its citizens after all as has also been suggested by the increased interest in this year's elections expressed in survey of the previous months. However, differences in turnout across the EU have been substantial, with particularly low participation rates among Eastern members and the UK.
The elections were overshadowed in the UK by the announced resignation of PM Theresa May for June 7 as well as accusations that EU citizens in the UK were partly denied access to the ballots. Altogether, the provisional Sunday results are relatively close to our poll-based projections (with some exceptions). In some member countries the outcome managed to surprise (such as the victory of the socialists in the Netherlands and the even stronger-than-expected gains of the German Greens). Final official results should be available later today. Based on Sunday's results, here are our five key takeaways.
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