Deutsche Securities wins 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award for Japan from Consensus Economics

The bank's Japan Chief Economist, Kentaro Koyama, received the 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award for Japan from Consensus Economics

Kentaro-Koyama

Deutsche Securities Inc. announced that Kentaro Koyama, Chief Economist for Japan, has received the 2024 Forecast Accuracy Award in Japan category from Consensus Economics, the world’s leading economic survey organisation.

Recognised for outstanding forecasting accuracy

The award recognises Koyama as the most accurate forecaster of Japan’s real GDP growth and consumer price inflation for the year 2024, based on a rigorous 24-month forecasting cycle starting in January 2023 and ending in December 2024. Among hundreds of global economists, his predictions achieved the lowest average error rate.

Koyama accurately predicted Japan's prolonged high inflation. His analysis identified a fundamental shift in the economy and re-evaluated established economic factors rather than relying on past indicators. This foresight has helped financial markets anticipate changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) monetary policy, according to Consensus Economics.

”It’s an honor to be recognised by Consensus Economics once again." said Koyama.

In a year marked by global volatility and significant domestic transitions in macroeconomic policies, we remained committed to delivering accurate, timely, and meaningful macroeconomic insights. Kentaro Koyama

Tamio Honma, Chief Country Officer of Deutsche Bank Group Japan, commented ”This award highlights the strength and consistency of our research. Kentaro’s achievement reflects our commitment to providing high-quality economic forecasting that helps clients navigate an increasingly challenging and uncertain global environment.”

Consensus Economics collects monthly forecasts from over 1,000 economists globally. The Forecast Accuracy Awards are based on Mean Absolute Error analysis, evaluating participants' monthly forecasts for real GDP growth and consumer price inflation across a 24-month period, using official outturns released in early 2025.

Deutsche Securities previously received the Forecast Accuracy Award for Japan in 2019.

About Kentaro Koyama

Kentaro Koyama is Chief Economist for Japan at Deutsche Securities in Tokyo, joining in September 2013. He previously worked as an economist at the Bank of Japan and in business strategy and asset management at an American consultancy. Kentaro holds a degree from Kyoto University, a Master's from University of Tokyo, and has pursued doctoral studies at The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

About Consensus Economics

Consensus Economics, founded in 1989, is the world’s leading international economic survey organisation. Each month, the firm polls more than 1,000 economists to gather up-to-date forecasts and insights. Its surveys cover individual and consensus (mean, high, and low) estimates for key macroeconomic indicators—including GDP growth, inflation, interest rates, and exchange rates—in over 100 countries, along with more than 50 key energy, metal, and agricultural prices. Consensus Economics also maintains the world’s largest and most comprehensive historical macroeconomic forecast database, with over 21 million individual data points.