News June 7, 2021

Deutsche Bank Research warns of the impending threat of rising inflation

David Folkerts-Landau, Ph.D. Group Chief Economist
Peter Hooper, Ph.D. Global Head of Economic Research
Jim Reid Head of Thematic Research
Luke Templeman, CPA Research Analyst

Deutsche Bank Research has today published its first client-focused paper under a new banner called “What is in the tails?”, which examines the potential for higher inflation and a return of boom/bust cycles over the next few years. 

“Our Research team is home to a broad church of views but we coalesce around a House View for our key macro forecasts. In the interest of intellectual diversity I have encouraged our research group to leave their comfort zone and carefully consider alternative viewpoints,” said David Folkerts-Landau, Ph.D. Chief Economist, Global Head of Research at Deutsche Bank.

The new occasional “What is in the tails?” series is designed to further stimulate debate with our clients by providing reasonable alternatives to the central forecasts and scenarios.

Today’s paper entitled, “Inflation: The defining macro story of this decade” notes the very role of government in the economy is undergoing its biggest shift in 40 years manifested in the receding fear of inflation and rising levels of government debt that shaped a generation of policymakers. Replacing it is the perspective that economic policy should now prioritise broader social goals.

At its heart the research report debates whether inflation is transitory or the pursuit of these important social priorities by governments will mean inflation will have longer-term and far reaching implications for the health of the global economy. Either way, higher inflation is coming and policymakers are about to face their toughest battle in 40 years.

To download a PDF of the full report, please click here.

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