News January 11, 2022

Automotive outlook 2022

A new Deutsche Bank Research Podzept podcast

Entering 2021, consensus expectations were for volumes to recover post COVID, with only hints of a semiconductor shortage. Ultimately, however, 2021 was shaped by the latter and automakers’ realisation of the power of pricing.  

Supply conditions, Rokossa says, should continue to improve in 2022, but will likely cap growth. The industry is still up against some major cost headwinds this year: not only the high cost of raw materials, but also energy prices have skyrocketed and FX is another challenge, especially for EU carmakers.

On the bright side, Rokossa explains that while most car makers are currently priced for going out of business in a few years, their high cash flows and cash returns puts many of them in an excellent position in a market where more people can afford to buy a new car. The question is: will carmakers lose their grip on pricing as soon as they can produce more cars again?

In the final few minutes, Rokossa talks about the outlook for electric vehicles and wonders whether we might indeed all be driving an EV this time next decade.

Listen to the full podcast.


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