Global oil markets under pressure: what’s driving prices higher?

The war in Iran and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz have sent global oil prices swinging in recent weeks. Despite a ceasefire deal being announced, uncertainty remains. In the latest episode of This is Deutsche Bank - recorded on April 1, 2026 - Chris Kenny, Head of Energy Trading, and Michael Hsueh, Senior Research Analyst, join host Michael Steen to take a step back and unpack how the global oil market works and what this conflict might mean for it.

Why does the price of oil matter so much?

Oil remains deeply embedded in everyday life. Beyond fuels for transport, it underpins plastics, chemicals, cosmetics and industrial materials. Changes in oil prices feed through quickly into inflation, travel costs and broader economic conditions. While Brent crude oil is the most common price reference, much of the real price setting happens in physical markets where refined products such as diesel, jet fuel and gasoline are priced daily.

What makes the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz so significant?

A large amount of global oil demand normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any disruption has major implications for supply. Uncertainty around how long the disruption may last – and how easily flows can be restored – has also added a sizeable risk premium to prices. According to Michael Hsueh, this is the largest disruption he has encountered, with impacts concentrated particularly in Asia, which takes the vast majority of crude exported from the Persian Gulf.

Is this comparable to the oil shocks of the 1970s?

There are echoes of the past, but important differences too. The global economy is now less oil‑intensive than it was in the 1970s, meaning each barrel supports far more economic output than before. However, that offers little comfort for regions most exposed to current supply constraints.

What role does Deutsche Bank play in these markets?

Deutsche Bank helps clients manage price risk. Through derivatives linked to oil and refined products, producers can lock in minimum prices while consumers – from airlines to logistics firms – can hedge against rising costs. In today’s market where near‑term prices are far higher than longer‑dated ones, this risk management has become especially important.

What comes next?

While it is too early for certainty, our guests share their thoughts on what outcome the different scenarios could lead to. For example, prolonged disruption could encourage greater investment in storage, alternative supply routes and accelerated energy transition efforts, reshaping how countries think about energy security well beyond the current crisis.