Watch the following Economy Views video of Joseph LaVorgna, Chief US Economist at Deutsche Bank, talking about the US monetary policy, the US dollar, China and its impact as well as the overall strength of the US economy.
For this outlook, Deutsche Bank’s Chief US Economist Joseph LaVorgna looks at key metrics such as Purchasing Managers’ Indexes and employee tax withholding receipts. All in all, he expects no material change for growth this year in the US economy. The remaining months of 2016 are estimated to be a more transitional period where the economy is expanding slowly, reaching only modestly above 1%. Indicators he has seen recently, from retail sales to industrial production to employment, all portray an economy that is very fragile.
Furthermore, he asserts that the Federal Reserve System (Fed) has been much more sensitive than in the past regarding global developments. In his view, the Fed will stay on hold through most of this year, but will possibly raise rates in December if the economy improves late in this year.